Associations of cumulative exposure and dynamic trajectories of the combined atherogenic and frailty index with incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity: a longitudinal analysis based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
Combining measures of unhealthy cholesterol patterns and physical frailty powerfully predicts who'll develop multiple cardiometabolic diseases over years.
The composite AIPFI (atherogenic dyslipidemia × frailty burden) shows strong dose-response association with cardiometabolic multimorbidity over 9 years in 7,995 Chinese community adults, with highest-quartile risk 2.46× baseline and persistently elevated trajectories carrying 54% excess risk. SHAP-based model interpretation provides a clinically actionable prediction framework integrating both metabolic and frailty dimensions.
What the study was
- Study design
- Longitudinal analysis; CHARLS cohort; n=7995 baseline, n=4483 longitudinal; Cox proportional hazards + K-means clustering of AIPFI trajectories + SHAP-based ML prediction model
- Population
- Chinese community-dwelling adults (CHARLS), median follow-up 9.0 years; 747 (9.3%) incident CMM events
- Sample size
- 7995
- Category
- Prevention
- Maturity
- Validated
- Journal
- Cardiovascular Diabetology
Why it surfaced
Longitudinal CHARLS analysis combining metabolic and frailty indices into AIPFI as CMM predictor. Novel composite index with strong dose-response and trajectory-based risk stratification. SHAP interpretation adds clinical utility. Chinese population data — generalizability to Western populations requires cross-population validation.
A plain-language summary of published research — not medical advice. Talk to a clinician about your own care.