Associations between early changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and outcomes across randomized trials: Insights from the ctMoniTR project.
When circulating tumor DNA drops sharply after treatment, patients survive significantly longer—validating this blood marker as a practical early signal of how well cancer therapy is working.
Early ctDNA decreases (≥90% reduction: aHR 0.51; clearance: aHR 0.45) were significantly associated with improved overall survival across 10 RCTs in advanced cancer in the ctMoniTR consortium; trial-level associations with OS were modest (R² 0.08–0.13) but stronger with PFS, particularly in advanced NSCLC (R² up to 0.74). This record was retained from the prior triage attempt for PubMed pipeline handoff.
What the study was
- Study design
- patient-level meta-analysis of 10 randomized controlled trials
- Category
- early_cancer_detection
- Maturity
- Potentially Practice-Changing
- Journal
- J Liq Biopsy
Why it surfaced
First cross-industry patient-level meta-analysis (10 RCTs) evaluating ctDNA dynamics as a potential regulatory surrogate endpoint across multiple cancer types. Published open-access in J Liq Biopsy with PMC. Regulatory-relevant finding directly informing ctDNA biomarker validation strategy for FDA/EMA endpoints.
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